Landslide Susceptibility Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment in the Badigad Watershed of Western Nepal
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v29i1.66351Keywords:
Area under curve, Badigad watershed, landslide susceptibility, vulnerability, the weight of evidenceAbstract
The landslide is a major and common natural hazard in the Nepalese Himalayas. This phenomenon is because of its active tectonic setting, extensively deformed rock formation, steep mountain terrain, frequent seismic events, high-intensity rainfall during monsoons, and high rate of weathering it occurs every year, especially during the monsoon season. The landslide susceptibility assessment using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing tools helps to display the hazards, and vulnerable zones providing the required knowledge of the susceptibility of landslides in a specific region. Landslide susceptibility with vulnerability assessment covering the comprehensive parameters provides an important understanding of the areas that are more likely to the damaging effect of the landslide hazards and is useful for mitigation, management, and avoiding threats. A total of 339 landslides were identified in the Badigad watershed from the satellite images on Google Earth, out of which 20% were used for model validation. The study was carried out using the Weight of Evidence (WoE) model. Eleven factors were considered as possible causative factors for the hazard assessment. Based on the landslide susceptibility map, 11% to 29 % of the study area is found to be in the range of very high to shallow landslide susceptibility. From the final map prepared it is found that many areas of Satyawati Rural Municipality (RM), Ruru RM, Chandrakot RM, and Chhatrakot RM, along with Musikot Municipality in Gulmi and Badigad RM in Baglung district, exhibit a notable high hazard level. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) graph with the Area under the curve (AUC) value was used to check the performance of the WoE model which shows that the model has 80.4% prediction accuracy for future events which means, the model shows very good performance. The vulnerability within the study area is assessed by obtaining vulnerability scores. To obtain the vulnerability score, fourteen indicators were analyzed following the Local Disaster and Climate Resilience Planning (LDCRP) guideline. The result obtained from the vulnerability assessment showed that two wards, namely Thulolumpek in Satyawati RM of Gulmi and Bobang in Dhorpatan Municipality of Baglung are highly vulnerable. By analyzing and comparing the vulnerability obtained from susceptibility mapping (using GIS) and social methods (using LDCRP guideline), it is observed that they do not converge based on the factors studied.
Downloads
References
Abedini, M., Ghasemyan, B., & Rezaei Mogaddam, M. H. (2017). Landslide susceptibility mapping in Bijar city, Kurdistan Province, Iran: a comparative study by logistic regression and AHP models. Environmental Earth Sciences, 76, 1-14.
Acharya, K.K. (2018). Local governance restructuring in Nepal: From government to governmentality. Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology, 12, 37-49. https://doi.org/10.3126/dsa
Acharya, T.D., Yang, I., & Lee, D. (2017). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of Bhotang, Nepal using frequency ratio and statistical index methods. Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying Geodesy Photogrammetry and Cartography, 35(5), 357–364. https://doi.org/10.7848/ksgpc.2017.35.5.357
Aleotti, P., & Chowdhury, R. (1999). Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 58, 21-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10
Arrogante-Funes, P., Bruzón, A.G., Arrogante-Funes, F., Ramos-Bernal, R.N., & Vázquez-Jiménez, R. (2021). Integration of vulnerability and hazard factors for landslide risk assessment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(22), 11987. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerp
Ayalew, L., & Yamagishi, H. (2005). The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan. Geomorphology, 65(1-2), 15-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.06.0
Banuzaki, A.S., & Ayu, A.K. (2021). Landslide vulnerability assessment using GIS and remote sensing techniques: a case study from Garut–Tasikmalaya road. Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 622(1), 012005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/622/1/012005
Baruwal, A. (2014). Disaster profile of Nepal. Emergency and Disaster Reports, 1(3), 3-49.
Bhattarai, D., Tsunaki, R., & Mishra, A.N. (2002). Water and Risk. In: Proceedings of Asia High Summit, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Bonham-Carter, G.F. (1994). Geographic Information Systems for Geoscientists; modeling with GIS, Pergamon Press, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Budha, P. B., Paudyal, K., & Ghimire, M. (2016). Landslide susceptibility mapping in eastern hills of Rara Lake, western Nepal. Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 50(1), 125-131. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v50i1.22872
Budha, P. B., Rai, P., Katel, P., & Khadka, A. (2020). Landslide Hazard Mapping in Panchase Mountain of Central Nepal. Environment & Natural Resources Journal, 18(4), (4), 387-399. https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj.18.4.2020.37
Cannon, T. (2006). Vulnerability analysis, livelihoods and disasters. RISK21 - coping with risks due to natural hazards in the 21st Century, Liisa Roponen at UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland.
Cao, Y., Wei, X., Fan, W., Nan, Y., Xiong, W., & Zhang, S. (2021). Landslide susceptibility assessment using the Weight of Evidence method: A case study in Xunyang area, China. PLoS One, 16(1), e0245668. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245668
Chen, Z., & Song, D. (2023). Modeling landslide susceptibility based on convolutional neural network coupling with metaheuristic optimization algorithms. International Journal of Digital Earth, 16(1), 3384-3416. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2023
Chen, Z., Liang, S., Ke, Y., Yang, Z., & Zhao, H. (2019). Landslide susceptibility assessment using evidential belief function, certainty factor, and frequency ratio model at Baxie River basin, NW China. Geocarto International, 34(4), 348-367. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2017.1404143
Coburn, A., Sspence, R. J. S., and Pomonis, A. (1994). Vulnerability and risk assessment, Cambridge Architectural Research Limited, The Oast House, Malting Lane, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Corominas, J., van Westen, C., Frattini, P., Cascini, L., et al. (2014). Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 73(2), 209-263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8
Cruden, D.M. (1991). A simple definition of a landslide. Bulletin of International Association Engineering Geology, 43(1), 27-29. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02590167
Cutter, S.L. (1996). Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in Human Geography, 20(4), 529-539. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259602000407d10030315
Dahal, R.K. (2012). Rainfall-induced landslides in Nepal. International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering, 5(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.13101/ijece.5.1
Dahal, R.K. (2017). Landslide hazard mapping in GIS, Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 53 (0), pp. 63-91. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v53i0.23808
Dahal, R.K., & Hasegawa, S. (2008). Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya, Geomorphology, 100 (0), pp. 429-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.01.014
Dahal, R. K., Hasegawa, S., Bhandary, N. P., Poudel, P. P., Nonomura, A., & Yatabe, R. (2012). A replication of landslide hazard mapping at catchment scale. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 3(2), 161-192. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2011.629007
Dahal, R.K. (2012). Rainfall-induced landslides in Nepal. International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering, 5(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.13101/ijece
Dahal, R.K. (2017). Landslide hazard mapping in GIS. Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 53, 63-91. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v53i0.23808
Dahal, R.K., Hasegawa, S., Bhandary, N.P., Poudel, P. P., Nonomura, A., & Yatabe, R. (2012). A replication of landslide hazard mapping at catchment scale. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 3(2), 161-192. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2011.6290
Dangol V., Upreti B.N., Dhital M.R., Wagner A., Bhattarai, T.N., Bhandari, A.N., Pant, S.R., & Sharma, M.P. (1993). Engineering geological study of a proposed road corridor in eastern Nepal. Bulletin of the Department of Geology, 3(1), 91-107.
Devkota, K.C., Regmi, A.D., Pourghasemi, H.R., Yoshida, K., Pradhan, B., Ryu, I.C., ... & Althuwaynee, O.F. (2013). Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling–Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya. Natural Hazards, 65, 135-165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0347-6
Dou, J., Bui, D.T., Yunus, A.P., Jia, K., Song, X., Revhaug, I., Xia, H., & Zhu, Z. (2015). Optimization of causative factors for landslide susceptibility evaluation using remote sensing and GIS data in parts of Niigata, Japan. PloS One, 10(7), e0133262. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133262
Füssel, H.M. (2007). Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17, 155–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002
Gerrard, J., & Gardner, R. (1999). Landsliding in the Likhu Khola drainage basin, middle Hills of Nepal. Physical Geography, 20(3), 240-255. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.1999.10642678
Getachew, N., & Meten, M. (2021). Weights of evidence modeling for landslide susceptibility mapping of Kabi-Gebro locality, Gundomeskel area, Central Ethiopia. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 8(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-021-00177-z
Ghimire, M. (2011). Landslide occurrence and its relation with terrain factors in the Siwalik Hills, Nepal: Case study of susceptibility assessment in three basins. Natural Hazards, 56(1), 299–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9569-7
Glade, T. (2003). Vulnerability assessment in landslide risk analysis. Die Erde, 134(2), 123-146.
Hasegawa, S., Dahal, R.K., Yamanaka, M., Bhandary, N.P., Yatabe, R., & Inagaki, H. (2008). Causes of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal. Environmental Geology, 57, 1423–1434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1420-z
Hearn, G., Petley, D., Hart, A., Massey, C., & Chant, C. (2003). Landslide Risk Assessment in the Rural Sector: Guidelines on Best Practice. UK Department for International Development (DFID).
Kayastha, P. (2012). Application of fuzzy logic approach for landslide susceptibility mapping in Garuwa sub-basin, east Nepal. Frontiers of Earth Science, 6(4), 420–432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0337-8
Kayastha, P., Dhital, M. R., & De Smedt, F. (2012). Landslide susceptibility mapping using the weight of evidence method in the Tinau Watershed, Nepal. Natural Hazards, 63(2), pp. 479–498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0163-z
Kayastha, P., Dhital, M. R., & De Smedt, F. (2013). Application of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for landslide susceptibility mapping: A case study from the Tinau watershed, west Nepal. Computers & Geosciences, 52 (0), 398–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.11.003
Kayastha, P., Dhital, M.R., & De Smedt, F. (2012). Landslide susceptibility mapping using the weight of evidence method in the Tinau Watershed, Nepal. Natural Hazards, 63(2), 479–498. https://doi.org/10
.1007/s11069-012-0163-z
Kayastha, P., Dhital, M.R., & De Smedt, F. (2013). Application of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for landslide susceptibility mapping: A case study from the Tinau watershed, west Nepal. Computers & Geosciences, 52, 398–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.c
Kharel, S. (2019). Local governance and rural development practices in Nepal. Nuta Journal, 6(1-2), 84-94. https://doi.org/10.3126/nutaj.v6i1-2.23233
Lee, S., & Pradhan, B. (2007). Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor, Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Landslides, 4(1), pp. 33–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0047-y
Li, Z., Nadim, F., Huang, H., Uzielli, M., & Lacasse, S. (2010). Quantitative vulnerability estimation for scenario-based landslide hazards. Landslides, 7(2), pp. 125–134. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0190-3
Mersha, T., & Meten, M. (2020). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping and assessment using bivariate statistical methods in Simada area, northwestern Ethiopia. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 7(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677
Mihir, M., & Malamud, B. (2014). Identifying landslides using Google Earth, Landslide Modeling and Tools for Vulnerability Assessment Preparedness and Recovery Management (LAMPRE), King’s College, London.
Nohani, E., Moharrami, M., Sharafi, S., Khosravi, K., Pradhan, B., Pham, B.T., Lee, S., & Melesse, A. (2019). Landslide susceptibility mapping using different GIS-based bivariate models. Water, 11(7), 1402. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071402
Nor Diana, M.I., Muhamad, N., Taha, M.R., Osman, A., & Alam, M.M. (2021). Social vulnerability assessment for landslide hazards in Malaysia: A systematic review study. Land, 10(3), 315. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030315
Ojha, T.P. (2009). Magnetostratigraphy, topography, and geology of the Nepal Himalaya: A GIS and paleomagnetic approach. The University of Arizona.
Pamela, Sadisun, I.A., & Arifianti, Y. (2018). Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping in Takengon, Central Aceh, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 118, 012037. https://doi.org/10.1088/17551315/118/1/012037
Papathoma-Köhle, M., Neuhäuser, B., Ratzinger, K., Wenzel, H., & Dominey-Howes, D. (2007). Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 765-779. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-765-2007
Paudyal, K.R., & Maharjan, R. (2022). Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) region in Tinau-Mathagadhi Section of Palpa District, Lumbini Province. Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 63(01), 99-108. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v63i01
Petley, D.N., Hearn, G.J., Hart, A., Rosser, N.J., Dunning, S.A., Oven, K., & Mitchell, W.A. (2007). Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal. Natural Hazards, 43(1), 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s110
Poudel, K., & Regmi, A.D. (2016). Landslide susceptibility mapping along Tulsipur-Kapurkot road section and its surrounding region using bivariate statistical model. Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 50(1), 83-93. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v
Poudyal, C.P., Chang, C., Oh, H.J., & Lee, S. (2010), Landslide susceptibility maps comparing frequency ratio and artificial neural networks: a case study from the Nepal Himalaya. Environmental Earth Sciences, 61(5), pp. 1049-1064. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0426-5
Pradhan, A.M.S., & Kim, Y.T. (2016). Landslide susceptibility mapping of Phewa catchment using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network. Nepal Journal of Environmental Science, 4, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.3126/njes.v4i0.22718
Rabby, Y.W., & Li, Y. (2020). Landslide susceptibility mapping using integrated methods: a case study in the Chittagong hilly areas, Bangladesh. Geosciences, 10(12), 483-509. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10120483
Rahman, G., Bacha, A.S., Ul Moazzam, M.F., Rahman, A.U., Mahmood, S., Almohamad, H., Al Dughairi, A.A., Al-Mutiry, M., Alrasheedi, M., & Abdo, H.G. (2022). Assessment of landslide susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability, and risk in Shahpur valley, eastern Hindu Kush. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10:953627. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.953627
Regmi, A., Yoshida, K., Pourghasemi, H.R., Dhital, M., & Pradhan, B. (2014). Landslide susceptibility mapping along Bhalubang – Shiwapur area of mid-western Nepal using frequency ratio and conditional probability models. Journal of Mountain Science, 11(5), 1266–1285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2847-6
Robinson, D.M., & DeCelles, P. (2014). Finding the Lesser Himalayan duplex in the Himalayan thrust belt of far-western Nepal amidst forests, villages, farms, and leeches. Geological Field Trips in the Himalaya, Karakoram and Tibet, 47.
Roy, J., & Saha, S. (2019). Landslide susceptibility mapping using knowledge driven statistical models in Darjeeling District, West Bengal, India. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 6(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-019-0126-8
Sarda, V., & Pandey, D.D. (2019). Landslide susceptibility mapping using information value method. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, 13(2), 335–348.
Sarkar, S., Kanungo, D.P., Patra, A.K., & Kumar, P. (2006). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping - a case study in Indian Himalaya, Disaster Mitigation of Debris Flows, Slope Failures and Landslides. Universal Academy Press, Inc. Japan, pp. 617-624.
Sato, H.P., & Harp, E.L. (2009). Interpretation of earthquake-induced landslides triggered by the 12 May 2008, M7. 9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Beichuan area, Sichuan Province, China using satellite imagery and Google Earth. Landslides, 6, 153-159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0147-6
Shrestha, H.K., Bhandary, N.P., & Yatabe, R. (2004). Trends in human life and economic losses from landslides and floods in Nepal, In Proceedings of 2nd International Seminar on Disaster Mitigation in Nepal, Kathmandu, November 2003.
Sifa, S.F., Mahmud, T., Tarin, M.A., & Haque, D.M.E. (2020). Event-based landslide susceptibility mapping using weights of evidence (WoE) and modified frequency ratio (MFR) model: A case study of Rangamati district in Bangladesh. Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes, 4(3), 222-235. https://doi.org/10.1080/2
Singh, S., Joshi, A., Sahu, A., Arun Prasath, R., Sharma, S., & Dwivedi, C.S. (2022). Himalayan Landslides–Causes and Evolution. In Kanga, S., Meraj, G., Farooq, M., Singh, S.K., & Nathawat (Eds.), Disaster Management in the Complex Himalayan Terrains: Natural Hazard Management, Methodologies and Policy Implications (pp. 33-42). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89308-8_3
Soeters, R., & Van Westen, C.J. (1996). Slope instability recognition, analysis and zonation, Landslides: investigation and mitigation. Transportation Research Board National Research Council Special Report, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., USA
Sumaryono, D.M., Sulaksana, N., & DasaTriana, Y. (2015). Weights of evidence method for Landslide susceptibility mapping in Tandikek and Damar Bancah, West Sumatra, Indonesia. International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), 4(10), 1283-1290.
Terlien, M. T. J., Van Westen, C. J., & van Asch, T. W. J. (1995). Deterministic modeling in GIS-based landslide hazard assessment. In: Carrara, A., & Guzzetti, F. (Eds), Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 57–77. Doi:10.1007/978-94-015-8404-3_4
Thapa, P.B., & Esaki, T. (2007). GIS-based quantitative landslide hazard prediction modelling in natural hillslope, Agra Khola watershed, central Nepal. Bulletin of the Department of Geology, 10, 63-70. https://doi.org/10.3126/bdg.v10i0.1421
Turner, B.L., Kasperson, R., Matson, P., Mccarthy, J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luers, A., Martello, M.L., Polsky, C., Puslipher, A., & Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100(14), 8074–8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
Van Tien, P., Le Hong Luong, P.D., Sassa, K., Takara, K., Sumit, M., Nhan, T.T., Dang, K., & Duc, D.M. (2021). Mechanisms and modeling of the catastrophic landslide dam at Jure Village, Nepal. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 147(11), 05021010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0002637
Van Westen, C.J. (2002). Use of weights of evidence modeling for landslide susceptibility mapping. International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands.
Van Westen, C.J., Castellanos, E., & Kuriakose, S.L. (2008). Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview. Engineering Geology, 102(3-4), 112-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.010
Wang, L.J., Guo, M., Sawada, K., Lin, J., & Zhang, J. (2016). A comparative study of landslide susceptibility maps using logistic regression, frequency ratio, decision tree, weights of evidence and artificial neural network. Geosciences Journal, 20, 117-136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-015-0026-1
Woodard, J.B., Mirus, B.B., Crawford, M.M., Or, D., Leshchinsky, B.A., Allstadt, K.E., & Wood, N.J. (2023). Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, e2022JF006810. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006810
Yagi, H., & Oi, H. (1993). Hazard mapping on large-scale landslides in Lower Nepal Himalayas. In International conference and field workshop on landslides (pp. 111-116).
Zhao, X., & Chen, W. (2020). Optimization of computational intelligence models for landslide susceptibility evaluation. Remote Sensing, 12(14), 2180. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12142180
Zhu, A.X., Miao, Y., Wang, R., Zhu, T., Deng, Y., Liu, J., Yang, L., Qin, C.Z., & Hong, H. (2018). A comparative study of an expert knowledge-based model and two data-driven models for landslide susceptibility mapping. Catena, 166, 317-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.04.003
Zorgati, A., Wissem, G., Vali, V., Smida, H., & Essghaiem, G.M. (2019). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using bivariate statistical methods. Journal Open Geosciences, 11(1), 708-726. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2019-0056
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Institute of Science and Technology, T.U.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The views and interpretations in this journal are those of the author(s). They are not attributable to the Institute of Science and Technology, T.U. and do not imply the expression of any opinion concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers of boundaries.
The copyright of the articles is held by the Institute of Science and Technology, T.U.
