Constructing Children's Legal Identity amid Socio-Economic and Demographic Transitions in Nepal

Abstract

Nepal is in the midst of a rapid demographic transition from an excess of children (ages 0-17) to a low population, with implications for children's legal identity. While birth registration is constitutionally guaranteed and forms of Sustainable Development Goal target 16.9, existing literature has not explored the links with provincial wealth, infrastructure, and institutional capacity in achieving this goal. The analysis is based on demographic transition theory and human capital theory, featuring descriptive statistics, provincial comparison, wealth-quintile based inequality analysis and trend analysis based on statistical data from the 2001 and 2011 National Population and Housing Census projected for 2031 and 2051. Findings show the child population share declined from 45.7% in 2001 to 33.8% in 2021, projected to fall to 21.9% by 2051. However, this decrease has not led to a reduction in inequalities with regard to birth registration. Interestingly, even though Bagmati is the wealthiest province, the poorest province of Karnali has the highest under 5 under-registration rate (87.3%) and the highest wealthier, the lowest (67.3%) indicating institutional factors other than wealth play a role in under 5 under-registration rates. Other differences are the gender imbalance at birth (87 girls to 100 boys) and limited access to piped water in households with children (32.8%). The results indicate that legal inclusion is not a direct consequence of poverty, and highlight the need for specific policies at the province level at the time of the demographic dividend. As data are cross-sectional, causal inference is limited; longitudinal research is recommended.