Impacts of Land-Use Change on Carbon Sequestration and Climate Mitigation Potential in Central Nepal

Abstract

Ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Nepal’s mid-hill districts have important implications for carbon sequestration and climate finance potential, as shifts among forest, agricultural, built-up, and other land-cover classes influence landscape-level carbon storage. This study presents an integrated geospatial and economic analysis of LULC dynamics and their impacts on carbon stocks in Kavrepalanchowk District, Bagmati Province. Using harmonized National Land Cover Monitoring System (NLCMS) maps for 2013 and 2022 as baseline data, historical LULC transitions were analyzed through remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques. TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler (LCM), employing a Cellular Automata–Markov chain framework with drivers including elevation, slope, population density, proximity to roads and buildings, distance from rivers, and soil type, simulated a 2032 LULC scenario with 95.3% validation accuracy. Forest cover is projected to increase from 62.3% (2022) to 66.6% (2032), while cropland is projected to decline from 33.4% to 29.4%. The InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model quantified baseline carbon stocks at 13.92 million Mg C (51.0 MtCO‚ e), projected to rise to 14.68 million Mg C by 2032. A net gain of 762,195 Mg C (2.79 MtCO‚ e) is projected. Economic valuation, aligned with Nepal’s Emission Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA) framework at USD 5 per tCO‚ e, estimates the standing stock notional value at USD 255 million. The realizable results-based payment potential for Kavrepalanchowk is estimated at USD 9.1–9.7 million, which could support climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Kavrepalanchowk District. These findings provide district-level evidence for Nepal’s Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system and underscore the need to extend carbon finance mechanisms beyond the Terai lowlands into Nepal’s mid-hill districts.