Understanding Differential Climate Vulnerability: A Comparative Analysis of Two Tharu Communities in Chitwan District, Nepal

Abstract

Climate-related hazards are disproportionately affecting rural communities in developing countries like Nepal, where livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive sectors. This study employed a mixed-methods approach to assess exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, guided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework and applying the Community-Based Vulnerability Assessment (CBVA) tool in two indigenous Tharu communities, Telauli and Jitpur, located in the Meghauli Buffer Zone of Chitwan District, Nepal. Data were collected from a total number of 200 households: 130 in Telauli and 70 in Jitpur that represents about 30% of each community. The study further utilized 31 years of meteorological data to validate community perceptions of climate change. The climate trend analysis revealed relatively stable rainfall and temperature patterns, with no statistically significant variations over time. Despite these statistically insignificant results, household perceptions reveal increasing climate stress from irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and temperature extremes, resulting in heightened risks of water scarcity,  flash floods, crop loss, and changes in farming practices. This is due to the fact that, short term variability affected livelihoods in contrast to long-term statistical trend situation. Both communities exhibited high exposure to climate-related hazards, with scores of 2.04 in Telauli and 2.08 in Jitpur, the latter experiencing slightly higher flood exposure. Sensitivity levels were also elevated with recorded score of 2.3 in Telauli and 2.7 in Jitpur. However, a notable difference was observed in adaptive capacity, which was higher in Telauli (2.3) compared to Jitpur (1.5). This is due to better infrastructure, market access, stronger saving groups and more diversified livelihood. Overall, the vulnerability was found to be high in both settlements but greater in Jitpur. The findings highlight that climate vulnerability is largely determined by the availability of community resources and, critically, by how effectively these resources are utilized to adapt and enhance the climate resilience.