Agronomic management and climate change scenario simulations on productivity of rice, maize and wheat in central Nepal using DSSAT ver 4.5 crop model

Abstract

Average productivity of 3.50 t/ha of rice, 2.50 t/ha of maize and 2.45 t/ha of wheat in Nepal have been very less than their potential productivity  for which précised agronomic management and changing climatic scenarios have been reported the most challenging factors at present. Cropping system Model (CSM)-Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)- Rice, Maize and Wheat, embedded under Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) ver. 4.5 was evaluated from a datasets of farmers’ field experimentations of the central Nepal (Terai-Nawalpur and mid-hill-Kaski districts), and showed high sensitivity of model over change in different agronomic management and climate change scenarios. Model calibration was done by using maximum attainable yield treatments for all tested cultivars while validation was accomplished by using the remaining treatments for predicting growth, phenology and yield of all crop cultivars and results were found perfectly matched with the observed results. Further, the different agronomic management options and climate change scenarios as advocated by IPCC for 2020, 2050 and 2080 from base line of 1995 was studied to simulate the growth and yield performance of diverse crop cultivars. The hybrids and short duration cultivars of all three cereals were found more affected due to climate change than the local and long duration crop cultivars. The model simulation results obtained on rice, maize and wheat using DSSAT ver 4.5 model highlighted that there is utmost importance to develop new climate ready crop cultivars to feed the future generation over different climate change scenarios as suggested by IPCC, 2007 and the simulation results should be extrapolated to the major domains of similar agro-ecozones in Nepal. It is suggested that CSM- CERES- model would be reliable and valid approach for getting strategic decision support system especially with regards to the climate change adaptation measures in Nepal.