Forecasting Annual Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Bangladesh Using Time Series Data

Abstract

Our ability to grow crops is significantly impacted by the weather. Therefore, it is important to make predictions about the weather. Because of its reliance on stable weather conditions, agriculture is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Countries like Bangladesh, whose economy is based on agriculture, will be more severely affected by the effects of climate change than others. For this reason, it is crucial to develop a robust forecasting tool to determine the implications of climatic variables, especially temperature and rainfall. In this study, we project the average annual rainfall and temperature in Bangladesh using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the next decade, from 2023 to 2032 Bangladesh's precipitation and temperature records from the past 60 years were compiled and analyzed with the help of the R programming language. Annual mean temperatures are forecasted to fall between 24.9 and 26.3 degrees Celsius, while annual mean rainfall is forecasted to fall between 1,550 and 2,650 millimeters.