Avalanche Susceptibility Mapping of Sagarmatha National Park in Nepal Using GIS-based MCDA–AHP

Abstract

The high mountain region of Nepal is vulnerable to avalanches and related hazards. Every year, numerous incidents of avalanche-related casualties are the new normal. However, studies about avalanches are limited. This study explores this gap and maps the avalanche susceptibility of one of the most iconic regions of Nepal: Sagarmatha National Park. This study applies the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis-Analytical Hierarchical Process (MCDA-AHP) method to map the avalanche susceptibility of the area. The Aster GDEM and snow cover data from the High Mountain Asia (HMA) are utilized to create the susceptibility map, which is then validated using previous recorded avalanche incidents in the region. The outcomes of the results show that 40% of the park's area lies in the high and very high avalanche-susceptible region. Susceptibility is not limited to the regions that have a snowcap throughout the year, but low-lying areas with seasonal snowfall are also susceptible to avalanches. The validation has shown that 80% of recorded incidents lie in the high and very high susceptible regions.