Risk Analysis of Existing Hydropower Based on Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract

Climate change has interrupted the global hydrological cycle affecting water resource management and hydropower production. This study conducts a quantitative risk analysis of the Modi Khola Hydroelectric Power Plant. The study analyzes risks on existing hydropower potential for the duration of 2026 to 2100 due to climate change. From eight selected coupled model inter comparison project phase 6 global climate models representing four extreme climate corners, under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and high emission SSP 5 8.5 scenarios by using advanced envelope method, future streamflow projections at the dam site were adapted. The baseline energy potential of 92.50 GWh and 81 GWh were utilized to identify the energy production risk. Energy generation, compared with 92.50 GWh, shows declines by 0.41% to 16.16%, except NESM3 increases from 5.57% to 7.73% and with 81 GWh baselines, improves from-4.26% to 23.03%. The risk rises with higher energy production, particularly under SSP 5-8.5 however, SSP 2-4.5 consistently reveals lower risk for the tenure. The greatest significant risks are seen during the near future then slightly declines by the mid and far future. The quantitative risk analysis shows that at 81 GWh production target, failure risk ranges from 6% to 38% across scenarios. At 92.50 GWh target, risk increased drastically to 53% to 86%. The 81 GWh level generally represents moderate to significant risk, whereas 92.50 GWh target represents the significant risk category across all future periods and models.