Nepalese Journal of Statistics https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS <p>Nepalese Journal of Statistics is the official journal of the Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal.</p> Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University en-US Nepalese Journal of Statistics 2565-5213 <p>© Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal</p><p>The author of article must sign the copyright permission or the author must assign copyright to the Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University prior to publication.</p><p>All rights reserved.</p> Measures, Distribution and Decomposition of Poverty: An Empirical Analysis in Nepal https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33447 <p><strong>Background: </strong>Poverty has been in existence for many years and continues to exist in a large number of countries. Poverty is “pronounced in wellbeing” where wellbeing (and poverty) in broader term, focuses on the capability of the individual to function in society and poor people often lack key capabilities, they may have not adequate income, education, or be in poor health or feel powerless or lack of political freedoms. In Nepal, despite the decreasing trend in poverty incidence, still the current prevalence is very high with the comparison of other countries.</p> <p><strong>Objective: </strong>To identify, compare and decomposition of different poverty measures by rural urban area and ecological belt in Nepal.</p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods: </strong>Data set of Nepal Living Standard Survey (NLSS) conducted by Central Bureau of Statistics in 2011 consisting of various variables related to food, non-food consumption, income, demographic, socioeconomics, etc., have been used for analysis. In order to measure the poverty, different measures such as head count ratio, poverty gap, poverty severity, Watts index and Sen-Shorrocks-Thon index were used. The comparisons of different poverty measures across different variables were attempted including use of appropriate poverty curves. The decomposition of poverty indices by consumption components using the Shapley value along with Lump-Sum Targeting approach has been applied.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>Average per capita consumption is 34186.5, the head count index, poverty gap and poverty severity of Nepal are 0.2518, 0.0545 and 0.0182, respectively. The poverty measures of rural area are higher than the urban area, and the incidence of poverty is highest in mountain ecological belt. Food and non-food component allows to 46.39% &amp; 28.42% of the total population to be non-poor of headcount index, 60.19% &amp; 34.34% for poverty gap index and 59.96% &amp; 38.20% for poverty severity, respectively.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>For both within and overall population, rural area has the higher impact than urban area and each measure of poverty in mountain is significantly higher than hill and terai. To reduce within group headcount index and poverty gap, policymakers should give more focus to rural area and mountain region.</p> Pravat Uprety Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 1 16 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33447 Multinomial Logistic Regression Model to Identify Factors Associated with Food Insecurity in Rural Households in Nepal https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33448 <p><strong>Background: </strong>Food is basics of our lives and many people experiences food insecurity at some time because of food deprivation and lack of access to food due to different resource constraints. It is a global challenge and threatens the rural people in developing countries like Nepal.</p> <p><strong>Objective: </strong>The objective of the study is to identify the factors associated with food insecurity in rural area of Nepal.</p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods: </strong>The analysis is based on rural household data extracted from the data of Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2016. The dependent variable food insecurity status was measured in four levels namely food secure, mildly food insecure, moderately food insecure and severely food insecure household using Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. Independent variables were categorical and quantitative variables. In order to identify the factors associated with food insecurity, ordinal logit model was fitted initially. Due to violation of test of parallel lines by overall as well as some of the independent variables, multinomial logistic regression model was finally adopted by examining the model adequacy test.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>The fitted multinomial logistic regression satisfied the diagnostic test including tests of goodness of fit, multicolinearity diagnostic criteria and minimum criteria of utilization of the model with about 29% predictive power. The variables ecological region, wealth index, size of agriculture land, any member(s) having saving account in any financial institution, any member(s) had gone to foreign employment in last 5 years other than India, family size, number of members completed secondary education and household member rearing cattle(s) were found to be significant. The poorest households (HHs) had 3.14 (CI: 1.88-5.26) times, poorer HHs 2.51 (CI: 1.55-4.07) times and moderate HHs 1.42 times higher chances of being severely food insecure relative to rich HHs.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study revealed that food insecurity of the rural HHs increases with decrease in the wealth index, size of land and number of members of the HHs with completed secondary education. The food insecurity of the households decreases with increase in the access to bank service.</p> Santosh Kumar Shah Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 17 32 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33448 On a Generalised Exponential-Lindley Mixture of Generalised Poisson Distribution https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33449 <p><strong>Background:</strong> A mixture distribution arises when some or all parameters in a mixing distribution vary according to the nature of original distribution. A generalised exponential-Lindley distribution (GELD) was obtained by Mishra and Sah (2015). In this paper, generalized exponential- Lindley mixture of generalised Poisson distribution (GELMGPD) has been obtained by mixing generalised Poisson distribution (GPD) of Consul and Jain’s (1973) with GELD. In the proposed distribution, GELD is the original distribution and GPD is a mixing distribution. Generalised exponential- Lindley mixture of Poisson distribution (GELMPD) was obtained by Sah and Mishra (2019). It is a particular case of GELMGPD. </p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods:</strong> GELMGPD is a compound distribution obtained by using the theoretical concept of some continuous mixtures of generalised Poisson distribution of Consul and Jain (1973). In this mixing process, GELD plays a role of original distribution and GPD is considered as mixing distribution. </p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> Probability mass of function (pmf) and the first four moments about origin of the generalised exponential-Lindley mixture of generalised Poisson distribution have been obtained. The method of moments has been discussed to estimate parameters of the GELMGPD. This distribution has been fitted to a number of discrete data-sets which are negative binomial in nature. P-value of this distribution has been compared to the PLD of Sankaran (1970) and GELMPD of Sah and Mishra (2019) for similar type of data-sets. </p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> It is found that P-value of GELMGPD is greater than that in each case of PLD and GELMPD. Hence, it is expected to be a better alternative to the PLD of Sankaran and GELMPD of Sah and Mishra for similar types of discrete data-sets which are negative binomial in nature. It is also observed that GELMGPD gives much more significant result when the value of is negative.</p> Binod Kumar Sah A. Mishra Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 33 42 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33449 Binary Logistic Regression Model for Assessing Factors Associated with Nutritional Status of Children Under Five Years among Chepang Community in Siddi, Chitwan, Nepal https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33451 <p><strong>Background: </strong>Chepang Community in Nepal has often been characterized as the poorest among Nepal’s poor, and has faced food insecurity at a household level each year. Health status of their children is poor compared to other community children and more so for the age group under the age of five years.</p> <p><strong>Objective: </strong>To find the proportion of stunting, wasting and underweight, and to assess the most promising factors associated with the nutritional status of children under five years of Chepang community in Siddi, Chitwan, Nepal.</p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods: </strong>A cross-sectional research design was used with 170 samples. To find the association of different factors with the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age (stunting, wasting and underweight, each) binary multiple logistic regression model was used and the goodness of fit of the model was assessed through Hosmer and Lemeshow test.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>The overall proportion of children under five years of the Chepang community is 60.6%, 30.6% and 44.7% for underweight, stunting and wasting respectively. Among many factors, the mother’s illiteracy (OR: 5.30, 95 % CI: 1.37 to 21.57), external monthly family income (≤ NRs. 2000) (OR: 9.65, 95 % CI: 3.23 to 30.78) and food availability for six months from own land (OR: 4.17, 95 % CI: 1.90 to 17.98) have a significant association with underweight. Similarly, for stunting, female child (OR: 2.19, 95 % CI: 1.02 to 4.70), number of children (more than one) below 14 years at home (OR: 4.15, 95 % CI : 1.77 to 11.04) and external family income (≤ NRs. 2000) (OR: 4.42, 95% CI: 1.01 to 17.06) are significantly associated, and for wasting, a number of children (more than one) below 14 years at home (OR: 4.64, 95 % of CI: 1.71 to 12.60) and external family income (≤ NRs. 2000) (OR: 5.17, 95 % CI: 2.27 to 11.79) are significantly associated.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Substantial numbers of children from Chepang community are having the problem of underweight, stunting and wasting. Different demographic and socio-economic variables have been found associated for odds of having low level of nutritional status of children.</p> Ravi Kiran Poudel Shankar Prasad Khanal Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 43 56 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33451 Drought or Wet Assessment of Daily Rainfall Pattern of the Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal: Standardized Precipitation Index Approach using Probabilistic Model https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33497 <p><strong>Background:</strong> Rainfall is a natural phenomenon. Dramatic changes in the rainfall pattern lead to extreme climatic or hydrological events like flash floods, or floods, landslides or severe drought events at any parts of the world.</p> <p><strong>Objective:</strong> The objective of this study aims to perform analysis of drought/ wet for fifteen meteorological /hydrological stations distributed over the Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal. </p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods:</strong> The Kolmogorov-Simonov test, Anderson-Darling test and Chi-square test are used for testing of the hypothesis of goodness of fit supported by the q-q plot (or p-p plot), cumulative distribution function plot and probability density function plot. The standardized precipitation index is a widely used to develop the index to monitor the dryness/wetness in a given day.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> Johnson SB distribution and Weibull distribution were fitted to the daily rainfall across the fifteen stations.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> There were some episodes of moderate drought events across six stations. Similarly, there were a moderate type of wetness across five stations. The rest of the stations had a majority of near normal days out of 13514 days.</p> <p><strong>Supplementary Material</strong> avialable here <span class="value"><a href="https://doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33499">https://doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33499 </a></span></p> Rajendra Man Shrestha Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 57 72 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33497 Determinants of Trade Deficit in Nepal: An Econometric Investigation https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33498 <p><strong>Background:</strong> Nepal has been importing some of goods and services from other countries and is also capable of exporting some other goods and services to foreign countries. Because of over dependency on foreign goods, Nepal has been suffering from trade deficit for more than 45 years. </p> <p><strong>Objective:</strong> This study aims to investigate the relationship of trade deficit in Nepal with its determinants by using econometric analysis where exchange rate, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment are taken as determinants of trade deficit. Its main objective is to examine the long-run, short-run and causal relationship among the variables. </p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods:</strong> Annual time series data from 1974/75 (from 1988/89 in case of FDI) to 2018/2019 obtained from different sources: Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Survey of Nepal, The World Bank and Department of Industry, Nepal Government were used in this study. Unit root test was used to check stationary. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), ARDL bound test and Error Correction Model (ECM) were applied to find short-run as well as long-run relationship. Finally, pair-wise causal relationship was tested by using Granger causality. </p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> All variables were found to be stationary at first difference. The test statistic of ARDL bound test was 8.17 and was greater than upper bound of 6.36 at 1% significance level. Error correction term’s p-value was 0.0052 and the corresponding values for pair-wise Granger causality from trade deficit to FDI and FDI to trade deficit were 0.00009 and 0.00005, respectively. </p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> There was positive and significant long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade deficit whereas there was negative and significant long-run relationship between real GDP and trade deficit. Moreover, real GDP positively affected trade deficit in short-run. Furthermore, bidirectional causal relationship has been observed between FDI and trade deficit.</p> Surendra Raj Nepal Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 73 86 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33498 Supplementary Materials: Drought or Wet Assessment of Daily Rainfall Pattern of the Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal: Standardized Precipitation Index Approach Using Probabilistic Model https://nepjol.info/index.php/NJS/article/view/33499 <p>Supplementary material for the article on pages 57-72 <span class="value"> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33497"> https://doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33497 </a> </span></p> Rajendra Man Shrestha Copyright (c) 2020 Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University 2020-12-18 2020-12-18 4 10.3126/njs.v4i0.33499