Beta Distribution for Estimating Risk Associated Time Schedule of Hydropower Projects in Nepal

Abstract

Background: Risk is associated with every kind of project work whether it is related to engineering construction project, software development project, financial transaction process or business process. There isn't any project which is free of risks. It is inherent in all types of projects. Observing risk associated with a project can help in successful completion of projects in expected time and expected cost with good assurance of quality. This article is concerned with quantitative analysis of risks coined with hydropower construction project in Nepal.

Objective: The main objective of this paper is (a) to identify different activities involved in hydropower construction projects (b) to estimate risk associated time schedule of the identified project activities.

Materials and Methods: Data required for the fulfillment of the objective are obtained by interview and discussion with executives of “Shiva Shree Hydropower Limited” and by using project schedule charts of projects won by the company. In this article quantitative analysis of schedule risk of hydropower project is studied by simulation method.

Results: Different activities involved in hydropower construction project are identified. Also, risk associated with time schedule of project are observed quantitatively by simulation using beta-PERT distribution.

Conclusion: Estimation of time schedule associated with project activities is more realistic when it is analyzed by using beta-PERT distribution compared to other statistical distributions.